Political Calculation: APC, ADC coalition jostle for Kano’s mega votes

Political Calculation: APC, ADC coalition jostle for Kano’s mega votes

As politics thickens ahead of the 2027 general elections, the ruling All Progressives Congress and the opposition coalition under the aegis of the African Democratic Congress seeking to unseat President Bola Tinubu are scrambling for the 5.7 million votes in the northern state of Kano.

Central to Kano is the state’s former governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso, who controls a large following, known as Kwankwasiyya Movement.

Multiple party stakeholders, who spoke with Sunday PUNCH, believe Kano’s votes and Kwankwaso’s standing will be critical to the outcome of the 2027 poll.

Kwankwaso contested the 2023 presidential election on the platform of the New Nigeria People’s Party and came fourth with  1,496,687  votes, majorly garnered in Kano State, his political base.

He got his largest number of votes,  997,279, in Kano State, edging out even the APC, who was in power in the state at the time.

Ahead of the 2027, with the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party and the Labour Party gasping for breath over long-standing internal crises, the ruling APC and President Bola Tinubu appeared poised for victory in 2027, but the recent emergence of the ADC coalition seems to have altered the political calculation.

Led by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, ex-governor Nasir El-Rufai, Peter Obi of the Labour Party, who came third with 6.1 million votes in the 2023 presidential election, ex-governor Rauf Aregbesola, ex-Senate President David Mark, ex-Rivers governor, Rotimi Amaechi, the ADC coalition appears to be fast gaining momentum, attracting other political heavyweights across the country.

As political realignments continue ahead of the next election cycle, Kwankwaso remains a coveted figure whose next move could tilt the scales in the fiercely competitive northern region.

In separate interviews with Sunday PUNCH, stakeholders in both the APC and the ADC coalition confirmed that efforts were being made to win Kwankwaso to their corners and secure Kano’s mega votes.

Also, multiple NNPP sources, who requested anonymity because they were not authorised to speak publicly, confirmed that both APC and ADC leaders had held several meetings with Kwankwaso and other top NNPP figures to negotiate potential support for or opposition to President Tinubu’s 2027 re-election bid.

Kwankwaso has remained silent on where he stands, deepening the political intrigues.

In an exclusive interview with Sunday PUNCH, APC National Vice Chairman (South-East), Dr. Ijeoma Arodiogbu, and one of the ADC coalition leaders and former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal, described Kwankwaso, leader of the Kwankwasiyya Movement, as a valuable asset to any political party.

Confirming efforts to win Kwankwaso over to the ADC camp in an interview with one of our correspondents on Saturday, Lawal said, “It will be a big advantage if he joins us.”

He noted that due to Kwankwaso’s clout, “some people are reaching out to him.”

As political realignments continue ahead of the next election cycle, Kwankwaso remains a coveted figure whose next move could tilt the scales in the fiercely competitive northern region.

In separate interviews with Sunday PUNCH, stakeholders in both the APC and the ADC coalition confirmed that efforts were being made to win Kwankwaso to their corners and secure Kano’s mega votes.

Also, multiple NNPP sources, who requested anonymity because they were not authorised to speak publicly, confirmed that both APC and ADC leaders had held several meetings with Kwankwaso and other top NNPP figures to negotiate potential support for or opposition to President Tinubu’s 2027 re-election bid.

Kwankwaso has remained silent on where he stands, deepening the political intrigues.

In an exclusive interview with Sunday PUNCH, APC National Vice Chairman (South-East), Dr. Ijeoma Arodiogbu, and one of the ADC coalition leaders and former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal, described Kwankwaso, leader of the Kwankwasiyya Movement, as a valuable asset to any political party.

Confirming efforts to win Kwankwaso over to the ADC camp in an interview with one of our correspondents on Saturday, Lawal said, “It will be a big advantage if he joins us.”

He noted that due to Kwankwaso’s clout, “some people are reaching out to him.”

Though details of the meeting held in Aregbesola’s Lagos residence were not disclosed, it was believed to be part of the alliance’s moves ahead of 2027.

Sources in the Osun State chapter of the NNPP said the two prominent politicians discussed issues around national politics.

NNPP chieftain and Kwankwaso’s close ally, Buba Galadima, in a recent interview, said the APC and the ADC coalition were making overtures to Kwankwaso.He, however, said Kwankwaso had yet to take any decision.

“Of course, we understand that the PDP, the APC, and even the coalition have been trying to woo Kwankwaso, but he has remained steadfast and strategic. And we will remain in our party strategically until the whistle is blown for politics,” Galadima said during an appearance on Arise Television’s Morning Show.

The recent resignation of the immediate-past Kano State governor, Abdullahi Ganduje, as APC National Chairman is believed to be part of the political strategy to ease  Kwankwaso’s path into the APC.

Insiders say it is part of President Bola Tinubu’s gambit to win Kano’s substantial votes that Kwankwaso controls.

A senior member of the NNPP, who spoke anonymously due to the sensitivity of the subject, confirmed  that the ruling APC, through the Presidency, had been in talks with Kwankwaso for weeks about a possible defection to the APC.

The source also disclosed that the ADC had approached Kwankwaso and the party’s leadership to explore the possibility of forming an alliance.

He stated, “We are still in the NNPP. But the APC has been in touch for a while; through the Presidency, negotiations are ongoing. Also, the ADC has reached out to Kwankwaso too.

“Because of his popularity among Nigerians, many political parties want Kwankwaso in their party. But I know that in the coming weeks, Kwankwaso will announce his position, and all our structures will fall in line.”

‘Kwankwaso too smart to choose coalition over APC’

The APC National Vice Chairman (South-East), Arodiogbu, confirmed Kwankwaso’s political value, saying he is wise enough to choose the APC over the ADC coalition.

Speaking with Sunday PUNCH, Arodiogbu said, “Kwankwaso is a very formidable politician in Kano. Looking at the population size and the political control he commands, he is a big asset to any party.

“But I can tell you confidently that he knows better than to join that ADC gathering. What they are doing is merely photo-ops out of desperation.”

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